Inflácia sa nechce pohnúť nižšie. Brzdia ju najmä služby

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Inflácia na Slovensku zostala v novembri nezmenená a stále patrí medzi najvyššie v rámci Európskej únie. Pod hranicu štyroch percent sa jej nepodarilo dostať najmä pre pokračujúce zdražovanie služieb, ktoré vyvážilo lacnejšie potraviny. Vyplýva to z najnovšej analýzy Národná banka Slovenska.

https://www.bratislavain.sk/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/o_3011482_1024.jpg

Ceny medziročne rástli o 3,7 %

Podľa indexu spotrebiteľských cien (CPI) vzrástli ceny v novembri medziročne o 3,7 %, rovnako ako v októbri. V porovnaní s predchádzajúcim mesiacom si spotrebitelia priplatili v priemere o 0,3 % viac.

Hoci celková inflácia stagnuje, jej štruktúra sa mení. Najväčším problémom zostáva sektor služieb, kde sa tlak na ceny stále nezmierňuje.

Služby zdražujú najviac

Ceny služieb v novembri medzimesačne vzrástli o 0,7 %, pričom medziročná inflácia v tomto segmente sa zrýchlila výraznejšie nad 5 %. Najviac zdraželi letenky, zubné ošetrenia a kultúrne služby. Výrazný nárast, viac než 5 %, zaznamenalo aj trhové nájomné, čo súvisí s pokračujúcim rastom cien nehnuteľností.

Podľa analytikov by sa však tempo rastu cien služieb malo na začiatku roka 2026 postupne spomaľovať. Pomôcť by k tomu malo odznenie vplyvu vyššej DPH, miernejší rast miezd a ochladzovanie spotrebiteľského dopytu domácností.

Rástli aj regulované ceny

K vyššej inflácii prispeli aj regulované ceny. V novembri sa do nich premietli nové cenové rozhodnutia a zavedenie dvojzložkovej ceny pri vodnom a stočnom. Cena vodného vzrástla medziročne o 7,6 %, stočné zdraželo o 5,2 %.

Potraviny infláciu tlmili

Naopak, potraviny pôsobili protiinflačne. V porovnaní s októbrom zlacneli o 0,1 % a ich medziročný rast cien sa spomalil približne na 1 %. Výraznú úlohu zohral tzv. bázický efekt – po minuloročnom zdražení mliečnych výrobkov a vajec sa ich vplyv po dvanástich mesiacoch vytratil. K poklesu cien prispelo aj lacnejšie oleje a tuky.

V decembri návrat k 4 %

V decembri analytici očakávajú opätovný návrat inflácie tesne nad 4 %, a to najmä pre porovnanie s výrazným poklesom cien potravín koncom roka 2024. Vývoj na začiatku roka 2026 bude výrazne ovplyvnený regulovanými cenami energií.

Podľa odhadov by mali ceny elektriny pre domácnosti v januári 2026 vzrásť v priemere o 5 %, ceny plynu o 6,9 % a tepla až o 23,2 %. Inflácia by sa tak aj v úvode nového roka mala držať približne na štvorpercentnej úrovni.

Zdroj: nbs.sk
ilustračný obrázok AI

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